COVID-19's U.S. Temperature Response Profile

We estimate the U.S. temperature response curve for COVID-19 and show transmission is highly sensitive to temperature variation despite summer outbreaks widely assumed to show otherwise. By largely replacing the daily death counts states initially reported with counts based on death certificate date, we build a week-ahead statistical forecasting model that explains most of the daily variation (R2 = 0.97) and isolates COVID-19s temperature response profile (p < 0.001). These counts normalized at 31{degrees}C (U.S. mid-summer average) scale up to nearly 160% at 5{degrees}C. Positive cases are more temperature sensitive, scaling up to almost 400% between 31{degrees}C and 5{degrees}C. Dynamic feedback amplifies these effects, suggesting that cooling temperatures are likely to the substantially increase COVID-19 transmission. Article Summary LineCOVID-19s temperature response profile is reliably estimated using re-assembled state-reported data and suggests the onset of cold weather will amplify its spread.