Climatic factors and cases of dengue in Monteria, Colombia: 2003-2008

Objective Assessing the relationship between cases of dengue and climatic factors rainfall (PLUV), temperature (TEMP) and relative humidity (HUM) in Monteria during 2003-2008. Methods This was a descriptive, retrospective study related to climatic variables and dengue cases in Monteria. Rainfall (PLUV), relative humidity (HUM) and temperature (TEMP) data recorded annual and monthly medians and averages. The Shapiro-Wilks correlation coefficient and Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric variance tests were performed. Results Dengue cases did not present normal distribution or significant difference. There were 1,050 cases; the highest number was reported in 2005 (305) but only 80 cases in 2004 (annual average was 175). Univariate analysis of dengue cases was not significantly influenced by HUM (R² 17 percent), PLUV (R² 18.3 percent) or TEMP (R² 1.8 percent). HUM and PLUV variables presented high positive correlation (0.798171). TEMP and PLUV had -0.1310772 negative correlation coefficient; TEMP and HUM had -0.6048030 negative correlation. The strongest climate-dengue case correlation was associated with combining the three variables (TEMP, HUM and PLUV). The Niño and Niña continental phenomena did not influence dengue cases. Conclusions This retrospective study showed a strong and consistent overall association between TEMP, HUM and PLUV affecting dengue transmission in Monteria.