Multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors of primary superficial bladder cancer.

PURPOSE: We evaluate the prognostic factors of recurrence, progression and disease specific mortality in patients with primary superficial Ta and T1 transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied a cohort of 1,529 patients with primary superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder treated with transurethral resection and random bladder biopsies. Mean followup was 4.2 years. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analysis was done with the Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise forward selection. All p values were 2-sided, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Multiple tumors (odds ratio 2), tumor greater than 3 cm. (1.65) and carcinoma in situ (1.6) increased, whereas intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) instillations (0.39) decreased the risk of recurrence. Grade 3 disease (odds ratio 19.9), multiple tumors (1.9), tumor greater than 3 cm. (1.7) and carcinoma in situ (2.1) increased, whereas BCG (0.3) decreased the risk of progression. Grade 3 disease (odds ratio 14) and carcinoma in situ (odds ratio 3) increased the risk of disease specific mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Neither tumor stage nor dysplasia influenced tumor evolution. Multiple tumors, tumor greater than 3 cm. and intravesical BCG instillations were risk factors of recurrence and progression. Carcinoma in situ influenced recurrence, progression and disease specific mortality. Finally, the main predictor of progression and mortality was grade 3 disease.