Should College be "Free"? Evidence on Free College, Early Commitment, and Merit Aid from an Eight-Year Randomized Trial

We provide evidence on the effects of college financial aid from an eight-year randomized trial offering ninth graders a $12,000 merit-based grant. The program was designed to be free of tuition/fees at community colleges and substantially lower the cost of four-year colleges. During high school, eligibility for the grant increased students' expectations of college attendance and low-cost college preparation effort, but not higher-cost effort. The program may have increased graduation from two-year colleges but did not affect overall college entry, graduation, employment, incarceration, or teen pregnancy. Additional analysis helps explain these modest effects and variation in results across prior studies.