Expert-validated estimation of diagnostic uncertainty for deep neural networks in diabetic retinopathy detection

Deep learning-based systems can achieve a diagnostic performance comparable to physicians in a variety of medical use cases including the diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy. To be useful in clinical practise, it is necessary to have well calibrated measures of the uncertainty with which these systems report their decisions. However, deep neural networks (DNNs) are being often overconfident in their predictions, and are not amenable to a straightforward probabilistic treatment. Here, we describe an intuitive framework based on test-time data augmentation for quantifying the diagnostic uncertainty of a state-of-the-art DNN for diagnosing diabetic retinopathy. We show that the derived measure of uncertainty is well-calibrated and that experienced physicians likewise find cases with uncertain diagnosis difficult to evaluate. This paves the way for an integrated treatment of uncertainty in DNN-based diagnostic systems.