General practice - workforce gaps now and in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The general practice workforce required for Australia in the future will depend on many factors, including geographic areas and patient utilisation of general practice services. OBJECTIVE: This article examines the current and future general practice workforce requirements by way of an analysis of geographic areas accounting for differing patient utilisation. DISCUSSION: The results showed that, compared with major cities, inner regional areas had 24.4% higher expected patient general practice utilisation per general practitioner, outer regional 33.2%, and remote/very remote 21.4%. Balanced distribution would mean 1129 fewer GPs in major cities: 639 more in inner regional, 423 more in outer regional and 66 more in remote/very remote. With the population projected to increase 18.6-26.1% by 2020, expected general practice utilisation will increase by 27.0-33.1%. Initiatives addressing general practice workforce shortages should account for increasing general practice utilisation due to the aging population, or risk exacerbating the unequal distribution of general practice services.